Arctic Paper: Volumes likely to improve in H2'23 - ABG

Q3e: Clean EBIT of PLN 31mBetter capacity utilisation incoming in '24Fair value range SEK 30-75 per shareQ3e: Destocking fades and plunging pulp pricesWe expect Q3 Paper EBIT of PLN 44m, up from PLN 30m in Q2'23. Lower paper prices are offset by plunging pulp costs.

The main effects q-o-q are likely: PLN -40m from lower paper prices (UWF prices down 5.3% q-o-q, CWF -5.5%), PLN 40m from lower pulp costs, PLN 5-10m from better volumes (destocking fades) and PLN 5m from lower chemical costs. Pulp EBIT will likely be ~PLN 20m weaker q-o-q driven by lower pulp prices and more maintenance.

Hence, we expect Q3 group EBIT of PLN 31m vs. PLN 39m in Q2'23.

We expect Q4 Paper EBIT of PLN 45-50m driven by seasonally better volumes, offset by lower paper prices.